International market: Robusta prices on the ICE London exchange extended their upward trend in the first week of July 2026. The September Robusta futures contract (RMU26) closed up 113 points (+3.09%) on July 1, while New York Arabica jumped 4.54%. According to Investing.com, the rally has been fueled by concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could delay rains in Brazil in September and October — the critical flowering period for coffee trees — threatening the 2026/27 crop and keeping the short-term path of least resistance for Robusta tilted to the upside until harvest progress improves.
In Vietnam: Domestic buying prices have recovered notably from their April lows. According to Helena Coffee Vietnam, domestic Robusta prices surpassed VND 90,000/kg as of June 29, 2026, while the July London futures contract climbed to $3,817 per ton.
That said, the bigger annual picture still shows prices well below their 2024–2025 peaks, based on the latest USDA FAS report (via Daily Coffee News): the export price in March 2026 stood at just $4,553 per ton, down 22% year-on-year, while the Central Highlands' average domestic price for the first half of the 2025/26 crop year was around VND 102,800/kg, down 16% from the same period a year earlier.
Supply outlook: The USDA forecasts Vietnam's green coffee output for 2026/27 to rise 2.5% to 32.5 million bags (60 kg each), with exports up 1.6% to 28.95 million bags. Weather risk remains a wildcard, however, as rainfall in the Central Highlands from January to March 2026 came in below normal, and the possible onset of El Niño conditions from mid-2026 could affect the upcoming harvest.
Sources: Barchart, Investing.com, Helena Coffee Vietnam, Daily Coffee News (USDA FAS).