Coffee: Stable at Highs
Domestic prices (July 20)
Farm-gate prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands have plateaued after the sharp rally of early July. As of Sunday, July 20, the market is trading in a narrow band:
• Dak Lak: 97,700 VND/kg
• Gia Lai: 97,700 VND/kg
• Dak Nong: 97,800 VND/kg
• Lam Dong: 97,200 VND/kg
Compared with the sub-85,000 VND/kg levels of April, domestic prices have recovered roughly 15%, but the market has gone quiet over the past three sessions as both farmers and traders wait for clearer signals from the international terminals.
International context
On the ICE London exchange, the September Robusta contract (RMU26) gained $80 (+2.11%) in the Friday, July 18 session, settling around $4,123 per tonne, supported by renewed concerns over Brazil’s delayed harvest. Arabica, by contrast, has pulled back from its July 9 peak of 347.90 cents per pound to trade closer to the 303–320 cents/lb range as some profit-taking set in after the dramatic 16% surge earlier in the month.
What to watch this week
• Brazil harvest pace: Safras & Mercado will release updated progress figures. If the 52% completion rate from July 1 has not improved materially, Robusta may test the $4,200/tonne level.
• Mid-July rainfall: forecasts for rain in Minas Gerais this week are the key variable. Heavy rain would support prices; moderate conditions could trigger another round of selling.
• Vietnam farmer selling: with prices near 98,000 VND/kg, some growers may begin releasing old-crop stocks. Elevated farmer selling could cap the domestic upside in the near term.
Pepper: Pulling Back from Record TerritoryDomestic prices (July 20)Black pepper prices in Vietnam’s main growing regions have retreated from the peaks seen in early July, when some provinces briefly touched 150,000 VND/kg. As of July 20, the market is trading lower:• Dak Lak / Gia Lai / Dak Nong: ~140,500 VND/kg• Binh Phuoc / Dong Nai: 137,000 VND/kgThe decline of 500 to 1,500 VND/kg over the past week reflects a combination of profit-taking by holders and somewhat cautious processor demand at the elevated levels. Export prices for black pepper have adjusted in step: FOB Vietnam for 500 g/l grade was quoted at approximately $6,440 per tonne and 550 g/l at $6,570 per tonne, according to reports on July 20, down slightly from the $6,600–$6,800 band of early July.H1 export performanceDespite the recent price consolidation, Vietnam’s pepper export performance in the first half of 2026 has been strong. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association reported shipments of approximately 145,686 tonnes, generating $940.5 million in revenue — a 17.4% increase in volume over the same period last year. The industry is on track to approach or exceed the $1 billion half-year mark for the first time, driven by persistently high unit prices even as volumes recover from the supply-constrained 2024–2025 cycle.What to watch this week• Processor demand: the key question is whether buyers at current levels are industrial processors covering near-term needs or speculative holders. If demand proves to be primarily processor-driven, the pullback may be shallow.• Mekong Delta secondary crop: the summer–autumn harvest continues through August. Additional supply from this source could keep domestic prices under moderate pressure.• India and Brazil competition: any change in Indian export pricing or Brazilian availability would shift the competitive landscape for Vietnam’s export offers.Cross-commodity takeawayThe diverging paths of coffee and pepper this month illustrate an important point for buyers sourcing multiple commodities from Vietnam. Coffee’s rally was driven primarily by external supply shocks in Brazil, while pepper’s strength was rooted in Vietnam’s own production shortfall. The implication is that these two markets are not moving in lockstep, and procurement strategies should treat them independently rather than assuming a single “agricultural commodity” trend. For buyers with exposure to both products, the current environment favours securing coffee volumes first — where the supply risk is more acute and global — while negotiating pepper purchases more selectively to take advantage of the price correction.Contact our trading desk for current coffee and pepper offers, sample specifications and contract structures.Sources: Vietnam Customs, International Pepper Community, Barchart, domestic market reports (Jul 20, 2026).
Tags: Coffee | Pepper | Market | Weekly Review